August review: It ain’t over ‘til it’s over

Horacio Coutino, multi-asset strategist

“I think the economy is weakening. Whether it’s on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.”
— Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan in an interview with CNBC, on 9th September, 2025.

A strong earnings season gave way to higher US equity valuations and heightened earnings growth for US equities. Nevertheless, investor concerns regarding institutional erosion, stemming from the White House's push for greater influence over monetary policy, were evident in the steepening US yield curve throughout August.

This report will analyse:
▪ S&P500 earnings growth for Q2.
▪ Sector alearnings grow thrates.
▪ The S&P500 sectors’ net profit margins.
▪ Sector-specific monthly performance for US and European equities

Our analysis provides an in-depth examination of the current trends and future outlook for US equities, with a particular focus on the impact of a weakening US dollar. The analysis highlights the potential benefits for EM equities, which have shown strong performance despite global trade headwinds.

Additionally, we explore the sector-specific impacts of dollar depreciation on US firms, noting that while some sectors may benefit from increased global competitiveness, others may face challenges due to rising input costs. These results underscore the importance of understanding the complex dynamics of global value chains and the varying effects on different industries.

Download the report