Earnings Scoreboard - Debí tirar menos CapEx

“We’re not sure what it means when Michael Burry and Morgan Stanley are seeing the same market bubble, but it’s probably not bullish.”

— Bryce Elder, Big tech’s $680bn buy-now-book-later problem, from FT’s Alphaville, published on 29th January, 2026.

Who’s scoring highest and why

During the week of 2nd February, 130 S&P 500 companies (including 4 Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents, including Amazon, Amgen, Merck and Walt Disney) reported earnings. The first week of February saw hyperscaler CapEx guidance for 2026 converge on $630bn, surpassing consensus and overshadowing otherwise sound Q4 results. This capital intensity has arguably become the primary driver for reassessment of AI valuations across the board, shifting focus from operational strength to the cost of doing business. The market’s reaction recalls the dramatic pause Bad Bunny took before accepting his Grammy. Borrowing from the spirit of his album Debí tirar más fotos (I should have taken more photos), we summarise the current sentiment with a new working title: Debí tirar menos CapEx (I should have deployed less CapEx).

As of 6th February, 77.1% of the 293 S&P 500 companies that have reported beat earnings expectations, while 71.7% surpassed revenue forecasts, signifying a strong beginning to this earnings season. According to FactSet, the blended Q4 earnings growth rate stands at 13.0%, higher than last week’s 11.9%, higher than 8.2% two weeks ago, and higher than the 8.3% projected at the end of the quarter on 31st December. This earnings season appears set to deliver the tenth consecutive quarter of positive earnings growth for the index, as well as the fifth straight quarter of double-digit y/o/y earnings expansion. The S&P 500 last saw four straight quarters of double-digit earnings growth throughout 2021.

The S&P 500 surprise factor is currently at 7.6%. This is higher than the average of 7.4% seen over the past four quarters and above the five-year average of 7.7%. Within sectors, Industrials leads with a 28.6% positive earnings surprise, while Real Estate has fallen short of estimates by 03%. Since the end of Q4, Industrials has experienced the most significant improvement in earnings growth among all 11 sectors, shifting from a projected decrease of 0.3% as of 31st December, to 23.3% today.

At this stage, the blended net profit margin for the S&P 500 for Q4 is projected to be 13.2%, slightly higher than the year-ago net profit margin of 12.7%.

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