Fixed Income Briefing March 2026

Renée Friedman, Global Head of Research

• The dollar has strengthened so far this month, largely due to stronger than expected labour market data, despite tariff uncertainties. The US dollar index is around +0.9% MTD, reaching 97.88 MTD.

• US economic data has been mixed so far this month. Nonfarm payrolls showed that employers added 130,000 jobs in January, far above the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate declined to 4.3%. According to ADP, private sector employment increased by 22,000 jobs in January and pay was up 4.5% y/o/y. Its weekly private payrolls for the week ending 7 February showed an average of 12,750 jobs per week. It was the fourth straight week of strengthening job gains. Although the labour market appears to be holding up, a number of layoffs are in the pipeline across sectors as noted by Reuters, with companies such as Amazon stating that it was cutting 16,000 roles worldwide in its second major round of job cuts, Dow announcing cuts of 4,500, and Workday looking to cut 2% of its work force.

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