Will Nvidia continue to set the pace?

S&P 500 +0.32% to 7,677.28

US 10-year yield -7.1 basis points to 4.634%

Spot gold +0.06% to $4,654.00 an ounce

DXY -0.08% to 98.91

What to look out for today

Companies reporting on Wednesday, 26 August: Nvidia, Salesforce, Williams-Sonoma, Crowdstrike Holdings, Synopsys, HP

Key data to move markets today

EU: A speech by ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone

USA: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Core PCE, Personal Income, Personal Spending, GDP, Durable Goods Orders and Nondefence Capital Goods Orders

Global Macro Updates

Canada imposes tariffs of up to 50% on hundreds of US products. Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney, announced $20 billion in retaliatory duties on US goods on Tuesday, matching the scale of the new levies introduced by President Trump. The Canadian measures, which take effect on 8 September, include 50% tariffs on US steel, aluminium, furniture and electronics, and will affect around 6% of Canada’s total goods imports from the US. 

Economists have warned that the retaliatory measures may have only a limited impact on the US economy while potentially weighing on Canadian companies. To mitigate the effects of the trade dispute, Canada also announced a $5.4 billion support package aimed at providing liquidity and grants to affected businesses.

China said it may retaliate if the US implements sanctions related to Iran. Following Treasury Secretary Bessent’s announcement of Operation Economic Outcast on Monday, Beijing warned that it could respond if Washington expands secondary sanctions against Chinese firms linked to Iran. The Financial Times cited a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson as saying that Beijing opposes what it described as illicit unilateral sanctions and views de-escalation as the immediate priority.

The report added that China has established a forceful anti-sanctions framework, which could allow it to take countermeasures against individuals or organisations that assist foreign restrictions on Chinese companies or supply chains. Analysts remain skeptical that the US will ultimately target Chinese firms, however, as such action could trigger a broader economic shock and strain bilateral relations ahead of the planned September Trump-Xi summit.

US Stock Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.30%
Nasdaq 100 +0.64%
S&P 500 +0.32%, with 7 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 up

Wall Street ended Tuesday modestly higher, as stocks posted limited gains while investors awaited economic data, Nvidia’s earnings report and commentary from the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium. 

Information Technology led the advance, with the Nasdaq Composite rising +0.66%. The Dow industrials and S&P 500 gained +0.30% and +0.32%, respectively. The Dow recorded its fourth increase in five sessions. Trading activity was subdued, with Tuesday marking the second-lowest volume day of the year.

Nvidia reports after market close today, with the earnings call scheduled at 5:00 pm EDT. As mentioned in our Earnings Scoreboard, Nvidia’s print sits at the centre of the ‘perfection priced in’ narrative that has defined AI supply-chain reactions throughout August.

In corporate news, Apple unveiled new Mac Mini and Mac Studio models featuring updated chips and AI enhancements.

SpaceX is planning to spend $100 billion to build a third Starship launch site in southern Louisiana. 

Corporate Earnings Reports

Posted on Tuesday, 25 August from The Pulse, our real-time AI-driven news tool. Available exclusively on the EXANTE Web Platform

Zoom reported Q2 FY27 results after the close. Revenue was $1.28bn vs $1.27bn estimated, up +4.9% y/y. Adjusted EPS was $1.55 vs $1.48 estimated, up +1% y/y.  Enterprise revenue grew +7.8% y/y. Q3 adj EPS guidance of $1.46-$1.48 was below the $1.50 estimate, while FY27 adj EPS guidance was raised to $6.08-$6.12 (above $6.04 estimate). The CEO said enterprise growth was the strongest in three years and AI products are scaling. BofA reinstated coverage with a Buy rating and $130 price target, citing reaccelerating growth and a durable product cycle.

Intuit reported Q4 FY26 earnings on 25 August 2026, with revenue of $4.4bn (beat vs $4.27bn estimate) and adjusted EPS of $4.03 (beat vs $3.58 estimate), representing y/y revenue growth of +14%. FY27 guidance fell short of consensus, with revenue forecast at $23.3bn-$23.5bn (estimate $23.72bn) and adjusted EPS of $22.88-$23.12 (estimate $27.32). Q1 guidance also missed expectations. Segment net revenues included Global Business Solutions up +14% y/y, Online Ecosystem up +17%, and Credit Karma up +16% y/y. The company announced a dividend of $1.38/share and $5.5bn in buybacks. Management stated it is focused on execution and disciplined investment to scale its strategy as an AI-driven expert platform.

European Stock Indices

CAC 40 -0.16%
DAX +0.61%
FTSE 100 +0.29%

Commodities

Gold spot +0.06% to $4,654.00 an ounce
Silver spot -0.72% to $68.44 an ounce
West Texas Intermediate -4.55% to $81.11 a barrel
Brent crude -5.47% to $86.98 a barrel

Gold rose to its highest level in more than three months on Tuesday. The rise was attributable to a softer dollar. 

Spot gold advanced +0.08% to $4,654.00 per ounce.

Conversely, spot silver prices declined -0.72% to $68.44 per ounce.

WTI and Brent extended their losses yesterday as the US entered the second day of its economic pressure campaign against Iran.

Brent crude futures settled at $86.98 per barrel, down $5.03, or -5.47%, while US WTI crude settled at $81.11 per barrel, down $3.87, or -4.55%.

Earlier in the day, White House officials said no talks with Iran were underway or scheduled, adding that the naval blockade was being enforced firmly and effectively. China, responding to the threat of US sanctions on entities doing business with Iran, said its cooperation with Iran should not be disrupted and warned that additional sanctions would intensify tensions.

Attacks on tankers in and around the Gulf continued on Tuesday, while yesterday’s shipping data showed the lowest number of commodity vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz since May. TankerTrackers said it monitored 15 ship-to-ship transfers yesterday, moving roughly 25 million barrels. Separately, several vessels were seen loading, or waiting to load, at Iraq’s Basrah export terminal. Over the weekend, Iranian state media reported that Tehran had granted Iraq permission for a number of its oil tankers to pass through the strait.

Ukraine attacked one Kazakh and two Russian refineries overnight. Reuters reported that Russia is set to extend its diesel export ban through September as domestic fuel shortages persist. One source said an extension through the year-end is also under discussion.

US crude exports to Asia are expected to rise notably next month, according to ship and commodity tracking firms Kpler, Vortexa and Sparta Commodities. Traders estimate US - to - Asia cargoes loading in September at more than 40 million barrels, compared with a forecast of 22 million barrels in August.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 25 August 2026

Currencies

EUR +0.08% to $1.1671
GBP +0.10% to $1.3645
Bitcoin -0.52% to $78,569.39
Ethereum -1.71% to $2,411.26

The dollar was rangebound on Tuesday as an uneasy calm prevailed across currency markets, with investors awaiting inflation reports from major economies, including the US, ahead of this weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium.

The dollar index fell -0.08% to 98.91, while the euro rose +0.08% to $1.1671.

Sterling rose +0.10% to $1.3645, remaining near a six-month high against the dollar.

The Japanese yen declined -0.08% to ¥159.20 per US dollar. BoJ said on Wednesday that Governor Kazuo Ueda will not attend the Kansas Fed’s annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week due to a scheduling conflict. BoJ board member Naoki Tamura will attend on his behalf.

Fixed Income

US 10-year Treasury -7.1basis points to 4.634%
German 10-year Bund -4.9 basis points to 3.221%
UK 10-year Gilt -6.0 basis points to 4.990%

Longer-dated Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as traders continued to assess the implications of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s decision to expand Treasury buybacks.

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, widely regarded as Scott Bessent’s mentor, said in a Wall Street Journal Op-ed that the move is eroding the Treasury market’s credibility and wasting an opportunity for meaningful debt reform.

Investors are now looking ahead to today’s July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which will provide the next indication of whether price pressures are easing. Consensus anticipates July’s PCE at 0.20% m/o/m, following June’s 0.30% m/o/m.

Attention will then shift to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium for any indication that the Fed may be moving toward a more hawkish stance on inflation.

Traders will also monitor whether Warsh comments on Bessent’s debt buyback plans. Warsh has advocated a more limited role for the Fed in markets, including reduced forward guidance.

The two-year note yield, which typically moves in line with Fed funds rate expectations, fell -4.5 bps to 4.187%.

The US 10-year yield fell -7.1 bps to 4.634%.

The 2s10s yield curve flattened by 2.6 bps to 44.7 bps.

The Treasury saw solid demand for Tuesday’s $69 billion sale of two-year notes, the first tranche of $183 billion in short- and intermediate-dated debt scheduled for auction this week.

The notes sold at a high yield of 4.204%, 0.4 bps below where they had traded ahead of the auction. The bid-to-cover ratio was close to its recent average at 2.6x.

The US Treasury will also sell $70 billion in five-year notes today and $44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday.

Across the Atlantic, eurozone government bond yields fell on Tuesday from levels close to multi-year highs.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell -4.9 bps to 3.221%, down from the 15-year high of 3.275% reached last week.

The German 30-year yield fell -4.4 bps on Tuesday to 3.711%, after reaching a 15-year high of 3.787% last week.

Money markets are pricing 41 bps of further ECB tightening this year, slightly lower than on Monday.

German two-year bond yields, which are more sensitive to ECB deposit rate expectations, fell -3.5 bps to 2.830%.

Italy’s 10-year BTP yield declined -6.7 bps to 4.013%. This left the spread over 10-year Bunds at 79.2 bps, compared with France’s 10-year OAT premium of 84.3 bps.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 25 August 2026

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