Home
Unlock the power of exclusive market analysis
Soft hiring and wages make an October pause easier to defend
Reduced urgency may support a tactical rates rally
Revised calculations cool PCE without extinguishing domestic demand
Faltering consumers support the disinflation narrative… until resilient corporate pricing power spoils the rally
Supply security looks manageable in the base case, but a cold winter and prolonged Hormuz disruption make the right-hand tail increasingly expensive
Two more months of trade peace offer temporary visibility, but little protection against the next supply-chain shock
Firmer activity and sticky inflation revive the tightening trade
Stronger activity and resurgent cost pressures force global bonds to reprice
Credit investors demand a wider spread
The euro and European yields come under pressure
Dovish dissents, fiscal expansion and yen weakness blur Japan’s path towards policy normalisation
